Sunday, May 13, 2007
Georgia, NATO and the Next Caucacus War
Allow me to make my point firmly and right away: The Republic of Georgia can not be allowed to join NATO under any circumstance. Such a move would not only spell genocidal disaster for the Abkhaz, the South Ossessians and the Armenian minority of Georgia, it would not only move NATO into striking distance of key Russian oil assets, but it would open the door to jihadists in a way that has not been possible up to now and might quite literally lead to World War Three.
As we should remind any readers, mainly the Westerners who have no idea of the history of the region, that the US backed Georgians attempted to exterminate their minorities between 1991 and 1994. Two areas in particular, Abkhazia and South Ossessia. However, the Georgians have been rather lousy soldiers since for the past thousand plus years, accounting for why they've been over run by all of their neighbors. In all intents and purposes, they have lost those two regions, both of which wish to join the Russian Federation and are 90%+ Russian citizens.
In retaliation for this, the Orthodox Christian nation of Georgia has been busy not only looking the other way on Islamics heading for the Jihad in Chechnya, but providing visas and active support. More then two thirds of the foreign Islamics killed in southern Russia have had Georgian entry visas. Thus the immediate effects of Georgia joining NATO will be as follows: the Georgians will throw open the gates for Islamics (those who fight Russia or India or the Serbs are rarely listed as terrorists by D.C. and it's Farce on Terror. Often enough they are given material support and asylum in Washington or London.) who will flood in to destabilize the Russian southern regions. This will of course play into DC's and NATO's hands, as well as the Saudis, by not only deflecting Moscow's attentions away from Ukraine and Belarus and other centers of NATO/EU/DC imperialism, but also will work to damage Moscow's ability to fulfill oil and gas sales and thus Russia's GDP and stability. While Washington would never be able to control any Islamic states that would rise up out of the Caucasus, neither would Moscow. Washington dearly hopes that this will happen and will have a ripple affect dismembering Russia fully and once again opening up Russia's natural resources and human capital for plunder: a tactic as old as Rome, to which Washington is often compared.
As for the Georgian's despised large Armenian minority, the formula will be forced Georgianization or extermination. NATO, regardless of what propaganda about freedom or such it likes to put out, has no problems with mass exterminations. Not only did it oversee such genocides by it's Albanian clients in Yugoslavia's Kosovo, it also has no problems with blood stained Croatia's history of genocide, another NATO candidate. Of course NATO is also quite able to (and this includes the EU as well) to ignore the NAZI and SS parades in Estonia and Latvia, even when both are backed by the ruling governments and ministers who regularly make speeches at these occasions. America too, seems to be rather silent on this, with all it's human rights reports. Rather interesting, isn't it?
Following this will be the solving of Georgia's issues with the break away regions: Abkhazia and S.Ossessia. Of course this will be genocide of the Abkhaz and Ossessian populations, under NATO's nose...or rather with it's aid. This has been seen as the solution in Yugoslavia's Kosovo, who's natural resources and factories were stripped away from Belgrade and given to NATO nations companies. Of course the more likely effect will be an escalation and full war, as both of these regions are essentially Russian citizens. Furthermore, Russian Cossacks and other volunteers have flooded the region and the Abkhaz are crazed fighters to begin with. Northern Ossessians will also flood south to defend their ethnic and often times, clan-tie brothers. This will in turn draw the Russian army into direct confrontation with NATO member Georgia and thus the US, which will be treaty bound to go to nuclear war over Georgia.
The Solution is War
Russia must take several steps to deal with this, to avoid the dangers of total war with NATO or it's own eventual dissolution at the hands of Washington and Brussels.
In the least of these steps, Russia MUST recognize the independence of Abkhazia and S.Ossessia and allow them to instantly hold referendums to join the Russian Federation. As soon as their independence is recognized, Russian forces must be invited in to keep the Georgians out. Moscow must once and for all give up on the option of negotiations with the fascist, Washington/Brussels backed government in Tbilisi. There is no negotiations when the other side is incapable of seeing clearly or living in reality. Those of Saakasvhili's party who had the power and the ability to do this have long ago been murdered or purged. The opposition has been arrested and the intellectual class of Georgia is a long time Russians resident.
A Causa Bella must be declared, triggered by Georgia's entrance as a NATO Candidate. The Georgians, embodying the largest reserve of pride in the world, will of course only accelerate their move towards NATO as will the dictatorship in Azerbaijan. Thus as prewar playing field must be set up.
By its nature, any war in such circumstance must be fast, efficient and minimizing damage to the infrastructure and civilian population. Furthermore, certain players must be accounted for. Georgia has one natural ally in the area, Azerbaijan. It also has a pseudo backing of the Turks, who are not all to happy to see Russia again upon their borders. Both issues must be dealt with.
The Turks can be bought off by three major moves. First, for their neutrality, they will be awarded Ajaria and other immediate border regions. The Turks must be guaranteed a low cost of gas and oil, particularly that traveling through the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline and easy entry to Turkish goods into the Russian market. Without active Turkish support, NATO will be powerless to intervene effectively against a Russian blitzkrieg through Georgia and by necessary through northern Azerbaijan.
In order to further weaken Georgian resolve and forces and to strip them of support in depth from Azerbaijan, Armenia must enter the war. Armenia must be guaranteed territory belonging to Georgia where the Armenians are the majority. This will also include a section of the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, from which they will be able to collect a transport fee and some of the oil and gas.
Azerbaijan must also be dealt with. To this effect Russia will require the aid of Iran. Iran has a long standing border and political dispute with Azerbaijan which has been actively agitating the Azerbaijani minorities within Iran. Thus Azerbaijan will be divided into three parts: the western parts will go to Armenia, the southern (the line running just south of Baku) to Iran and the northern to Russia.
But Moscow can not go into this proposition half ready. Upon the declaration of war, four Russian forces must move out and into combat. The coast of Georgia must be blockaded by the Black Sea fleet. A brigade of Russian marines must be brought in to capture Poti, at the very outset of hostilities. From Abkazia, a combined force of one mechanized and one armored divisions must drive south, first taking Zugdidi. A brigade strength unit must move down, first linking up with the marines at Poti and then moving out on the second day to secure Adjaria. The remainder of the Western task force must move out along Route 6 sweeping up Senaki and Kutaisi on the 2nd and 3rd day.
Task force Center, composed of a mechanized infantry brigade and an airborne division, will strike the center. The Brigade will take and occupy Gori and the surrounding area, cutting off Route 6 and any Georgian reinforcements moving west from Tbilisi. Meanwhile from the first declaration, the airborne division will take the high ground surrounding Tbilisi and lay siege to the city in order to stop any massing of troops or any logistical movements of Georgian defense forces.
Task Force East will comprise of a mechanized division and a mechanized brigade. Task Force East will seize Lagodekhi in the first hours of hostilities. The division will then move out to seize Telavi by the end of the first day. The brigade will move south to seize Tsnori and then on the following days to occupy Tsetili-Tsakora.
The mechanized division will then proceed to move west over the following 2 days and occupy blocking positions from the south east of Tbilisi, slowly rolling up the Georgian capital from the south, while Airborne artillery and Russian airforce planes prevent any large groupings by the Georgian forces.
No later then by the 4th day, Task Group West must make contact with Task Force Center around Gori. After a one day pause and refit, it will move out and occupy positions on the NW edge of Tbilisi and begin rolling up the Georgian capital from that end. Operations in the capital must not take more then 4-6 days.
The key to all of these operations is speed and brutal force, coupled with broad opportunities for the enemy to surrender.
Armenian forces must also move out from the south occupying Bogdanovka, Kazreti and Akhalkalaki. Once Ajaria is taken, Russian forces can move back, allowing the Turkish army to roll in.
On the Azerbaijani front, Task Force Azerbaijani, consisting of two Task Forces Az West and AZ East, both composed of a Mechanized Division, one Armored Brigade and a Motorized Infantry Brigade.
AZ West will take Sheki on the first day. At least one battalion will be left to garrison the area and keep any Azeri forces in the nw corner locked up. The task force will then move out and strike Vartashan. Additionally, an airborne brigade will be dropped between Vartashan and Kutkashan, cutting lines of communication. AZ West will link up with the airborne brigade on day 2 and proceed to Kutkashan. The airborne brigade will then occupy Vartashan and Kutkashan. A second airborne brigade will be dropped in the Akhsu/Shemakha area. AZ West will link up with this brigade after taking Lagich, no later then by day 5. After taking one day for rest and reconsolidation, AZ West will strike out towards Karasu and Zardob, splitting its force in the process and meeting the Iranians on the Kura River.
AZ East will strike out down the coast, first at Nabran, then Khudat on the first day. On the second day it will take Khachmas and then link up with an airborne brigade between Khachmas, Divichi and Siazan, which will be deployed in the area to cut communications. The airborne brigade will then be divide up to garrison the area. AZ East must take Siazan no later then day 3. From there it will strike out for Sumgalt. A second airborne brigade will be deployed in the between Sumgalt and Shemakha, providing western security for AZ East. Upon taking Sumgalt, AZ East will spend one day, day 5, on rest and reconsolidation. On day 6 it will strike out towards Baku.
Two further Marine brigades will strike Kala on day 1, drawing Azerbaijani forces east and the second will strike Baku's ports on day 4, reinforced by a helicopter infantry (airlift) battalion and sea borne fire support. Major hostilities should be over within 10 days with mopping up taking the following 3-4 weeks.
Several key steps must be taken in order to secure the surrender of enemy forces and population. The key is to strike hard enough to destroy all opposition but to equally give the Georgians and Azeri reasons not to fight or hold a long grudge, since they will be incorporated directly into the Russian Federation.
As such, all surrendering enemy forces must not only be well treated but guaranteed a speedy Russian citizenship (upon surrender they will turn in their Georgian/Azeri passports for Russian ones). They will be guaranteed full military pensions and a $1,000 bonus for surrendering and the first opportunity to fill police and security positions. The key is a speedy collapse of enemy forces before NATO can intervene or the EU can voice strong opposition.
Furthermore, stations must be set up where Georgians and Azari citizens can turn in their passports for Russian passports and receive 2 months worth of pensions (for the elderly) and the ability to travel into Russia. Furthermore, trucks with food must arrive quickly to prevent hunger for any displace peoples. Refugee camps must be set up on the Russian side of the border, accepting displaced persons and allowing them to travel to relatives inside of Russia. Repair crews must be ready to provide repairs for all major services. Furthermore, monies must be readied to pay for all war damaged houses, even if claims are some what doubtful.
Benefits of War
The immediate benefits will be the closing down of entry points for the Sunni Jihad inside of Russia. With Shiite Iran controlling entry from the east, secular Turkey in the west and Orthodox Christian Armenia in the south, guarding the borders. The removal of NATO/EU influence in the Caucasus will further lower tensions in the area, allowing for an easier development of the regions resources. The biggest local beneficiaries will be the local peoples, freed from the twin Western backed tyrannies in Tbilisi and Baku. Lastly, the threat of WW3 will be pushed back, as the West will be knocked out of the Great Game of the Caucasus and Russia's future on it's most vulnerable flank will be finally and fully secured.