Thursday, December 5, 2013
EU's Hard Power in Ukraine
EU's Hard Power in Ukraine
The Fourth Reich is on the march and where soft power, that is buying out the local elites, does not work, well, hard power is quite the option still. As such, the EU has launched its Plan B, Revolution.
The problem is, this time several key issues are quite different, from the Orange Revolution.
First, the participants on the side of the "Revolution" are not the same. Previously, the Orange Revolution, which was still predominantly Western Ukrainian, had a lot of sympathy in Central and Eastern Ukraine. However, that sympathy is gone. The Oranges brought in a regime just as corrupt as the previous, but without any of the economy savy, dropping growth rates from a staggering 13% to a shrinking -6%. Furthermore, the Oranges did everything they could to pump all the resources out of the industrialized East to the backwards agrarian West.
The European standards of homosexualization, indoctrination and debasement of the human soul, as well as attempts to break up the Orthodox Church in Ukraine, heavily turned all but the Catholic West Ukraine off. But considering the Catholic West Ukraine were the same people that flocked to join Hitler's legions and massacre their fellows, this should come as no surprise that they are still flocking to the latest incarnation of the Reich.
Furthermore, the very demonstrators are different. Gone are the well organized crowds, concerts, and strict anti-alcohol and drug discipline. Today's crowds are riddled with anarchists, alcohol and drug users and are definitely violent. They are not about to camp out for months, they are about murderous revolution in the name of European "values". The EU does not have the patience of Washington to wait the extra months.
Like wise, the stakes are quite different. With the Oranges, there was a level of unsurity of what would exactly happen. So people, as people tend to do, filled in the blanks with their dreams and hopes. While some of that still remains for the uninformed or paid off mass of students, who have plenty of energy and no brains, those who have not drunk the EU coolaid and are reviewing this with a level head understand just what will happen.
Associating with the EU will achieve:
1. Closure of Russian borders to Ukrainian products, destroying over 50% of what is left of Ukraine's industry, driving 400,000 people directly into unemployment and probably 1 million more from the follow on effect.
2. Bring gas prices to free market levels, which will increase prices in general by another 50-60% and thus make Ukraine's uneconomical industry and agriculture that much more uneconomical.
3. Flood Ukraine with German, French, British and Italian goods, thus destroying what's left of the local production and driving millions more into unemployment.
4. Increase gas prices for the average Ukrainian, a direct demand by the EU.
5. Freeze salary increases for government employees, a direct demand by the EU.
6. Decrease in gov revenues that are presently collected from importation tariffs on EU goods.
Associating with the EU will NOT achieve:
1. Any bailout funds from the EU.
2. Any decreases in the extremely high standards demanded to import into the EU, thus no increase in export volumes.
3. A visa free regime into the EU. Not only will this not change, but a visa regime with Russia is quite possible, fully trapping Ukrainians.
4. A "European" that is a "Western" prosperity future. Quite the opposite will happen: see Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria, Spain, Portugal, or Ireland for the latest examples.
5. EU investment.
In all truth, those of the protesters who are not just being paid to protest, will be in for a quite a shock if they ever get their way.
However, things are not that simple. The government backed away from signing the accord first and foremost because of the under reported demonstrations in Eastern Ukraine and the threats of businessmen. Both parties are staying at home right now because they got what they want, but if this EU Revolution starts gaining steam, they will head out into a counter revolution and that in truth means civil war.
We may be witnessing the first shots of the well over due Ukrainian civil war and the end of the artificial Ukrainian nation. For the Poles this is just as fine, since they will happily vassal and then colonize, read wipe out, the Western Ukrainians.
Now, it may be that the EU bureaucrats and politicos are to stupid to understand what they are launching in Ukraine or it may be that they have this calculated out quite well and are prepared to sacrifice millions of lives and even surrender Eastern Ukraine to Russia, in order to grab what they can out of Western Ukraine and destabilize that portion of the world.
What do you think?