Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Five Most Important Events of the Second Half of 2010

1. Korean War

North Korea is famous for playing on the edge, to get what it wants. Unfortunately, this time, with economic and political anarchy prevailing in the world, N.Korea, sinking a S.Korean corvette, may have finally over played its hand. However, like a good spoiled child, to stupid and near sighted to actually stop and seriously reassess its position and situation, the leadership has only become more bellicose. Chances are, this time, they have over played their hand.

The power party in S.Korea is just as determined not to back down and as such will continue to escalate the standoff, which has already become a full blown economic war, which in this case is more like a roach facing a whale.

The Americans have thrown their lot behind the S.Koreans with false bravado, as in reality they obviously do not understand that a war between the Koreas will permanently end the American hegemony.

If a war breaks out, several things will happen: one, Seoul will be destroyed, be it by nuclear weapons, chemicals or the destruction of upriver dams. Several million S.Koreans will probably perish. North Korea will be crushed and the Chinese will not interviene as S.Korea finally annexes N.Korea. Why should they? With a unified Korea, the main reason for American involvement will be done. Furthermore, with its resources extremely stretched and limited, the US will not be able to provide much of the fighting force needed, something that S.Korea is able now to handle with our the US. To that end, in short order, after the war, demonstrations and pressure will mount to eject the Americans from the reunified Koreas.

Further, Russia should get actively involved, militarily, in destroying N.Korea, as I covered in Russia Must Take Decisive Action in the Koreas or we will face the waves of Korean refugees heading north, into our lands.

2. Gulf Super Disaster and the Decline of America

The oil will keep coming up, emptying out of the giant reserve and BP and the US Federal government will continue to make excuses and attempt to cover up the massive size of the disaster. Unfortunately, with things this large, that is rather hard to do. Already the oil is washing up in Louisiana, one of the poorest states in America.

This is already destroying one of the few viable industries of that region, fishing. Once the American government uses this disaster to their desired effect and closes down all pumping, the other major industries of the area will die out. The shut down will be along ideological grounds to transform the Americans into Chinese bicycle riders. Of course the effect this will in reality have, what is now coined as Blow Back, is to drive the states along the coast, who will now face massive economic degradation, into a secessionist move.

If the American government attempts to crack down on theses seditionist movements, they will only accelerate the breakdown of America, as predicted in: The Balkanization of North America

The Federal government will face a massive populist drive for independence, having botched one disaster after another and used them to impoverish the locals.
Furthermore, international law suits will follow through, as the giant and ever growing spill starts to terrorize the rest of the nations surrounding the Gulf, Mexico being chief amongst them.

3. Death of the Euro, Birth of the EU Super State

The death of the Euro will finally run its course, as designed. In effect, Greece, Spain and Portugal (it will never reach such a large and important economy as Italy) will collapse, along with already collapsed Ireland and the UK, all of which will need bailouts. Yes, the UK is not on the Euro but its economy is very much so tied to the Euro zone and it is a fiat banana republic, with a debauched currency, a dyeing economy and mass unrest.

Brussels has already signed the way things will be: they have turned Greece into a vassal, taking over its finance and what is independence when you can not even control your own spending? With Portugal and Spain joining the ranks of Ireland, Brussels will start to scream bloody murder and along with the rest the EU. The public will be told over and over that the only way to stability is a unified financial policy and once the money is totally concentrated in the hands of the Eurocrats, its all over. And no, the majority of Europeans will not go past protest, the Greeks have shown us as much. Even though they are offended by the Eurocrats making their country into a vassal state, they are in love with the freebies and well, they’ll swallow it, at least it is not the Turks who are masters now.

4. Collapse of Mexico

Calderon will be assassinated or at best will be holed up in Mexico City, unable to trust the rest of the country side. Violence will continue to escalate in every corner of Mexico. Tourism will die out the rest of the way, this summer will be an absolute disaster. Poverty will sky rocket. Foreign corporations will start to flee and local businessmen will accelerate their pullout from Mexico, taking their money with them.

The further collapsing US economy will continue bringing back a stream or river of unemployed and bitter Mexicans. Violence will spread even faster into the US and so will unrest, from the already pissed off border states. This coupled with US surging poverty and the other suffering of the American Gulf States and the world will have a front line ticket to the makings of the next American civil war.

5. China’s Bubble Wheezing Air

Beijing is going to wake up and realize, one day, that it is not such a power house to throw all that weight around. It will continue to have to put more and more pressure on its economy not to explode, like the Yanks they’ve emulated to their own stupidity.

The central government will continue to pull the reigns in, to keep the hyper inflation in their markets in check. This will, of course, decrease the over all demand for everything internally, driving up unemployment and unrest. With Europe and the US not back into order “stuff” from China, there will be no recovery to speak of and wages will have to be raised to make up at least a little of the standard of living, already incredibly low, that has been erased by the massive easy money inflation, of the past year.

China, its fortunes in decline, will continue to see its losses in green paper mounting. They will accelerate their drive to distance themselves from the US. First, they will not back the N.Koreans, and allow the Korean peninsula to be unified, under the South, knowing that this will strip away the reason for the Yanks to even be there. They also know that this will only drive Japanese, by example, to oust the Yanks from there too.

Next, they will begin the semi-legal but very popular step of nationalizing American factories. This will be a blow from which many US firms will not survive, though in the end, the long end, it may actually help the American economy, showing them just the cost of Free Trade.

Over all, these five events will drive the rest of 2010 and well beyond it, setting the tone, not only for 2011 but possibly for much of the follow on decade.


hamilton x said...

Excellent and thoughtful observations, Mr. Mishin. Allow me,respectfully, to differ with you on a few. Korea will crank down as usual and nothing but angry resolutions will result. Maybe a NK border guard will get shot. You are very correct about the oil spill debacle ,Mexico's collapse and mostly correct about China's problems.I disagree that an EU 'superstate" is in the offing;I am somewhat optimistic that like nazism and bonapartism that monstrosity is over. This can only be good for your native land, Europe and European peoples.The biggest story of latter 2010 will be the American mid-term elections.

Cobra said...

It is more likely the EUSSR will than take over all the countries. Germany will deliver the final blow.
As for the USA, we will get rid of Obama and these marxists one way or another.
But the economy will suffer for almost the entire decade.
Don't know. It could be a disaster for them or they could manage to stay afloat somehow. But, by the end of the decade the USA and China will be clash...