Sunday, February 2, 2014

Rubles Devaluation Spells Nightmare for Europe

If there is one thing that can help set off that final European push towards economic spiraled collapse, it is something that is happening but getting little real talk about. Why?

Why is there little talk about it? Because it is the ruble and the West, in its arrogance, pride and blind pure stupidity, of all things Russian, still for the most part, thinks of long lines for toilet paper when they think of Russia. That Russia has joined the devaluation game, by letting the ruble float free, has yet to fully sink into the European public mind. But it will soon enough and when it does, a new tightening of the throat and then the belt and then possibly the panic.

Why? Why will the ruble, which has been in a steep devaluation, loosing over 12% in the past 4 weeks, going to cause so much trouble? First a side note: when the Russian central bank decided to float the ruble, a decision that they reached back in 2011/2012 and aimed at 2014, they counted on a slow 10% devaluation over the entire year. The fundamentals of the Russian economy are sound enough, but between the strengthening dollar and euro and the fact that the Ruble was artificially high, the slide has been on. What they have now gotten is a full on slide of over 12% in under 3 weeks and there is no bottom in sight.

Now the upcoming Olympics will slow that slide, as half a million tourists coming in in such a short period will increase demand for Ruble. But this will only last about 1 month and is already starting to appear. Once the Olympics factor is done, the slide will return.

Europeans will start to feel it in a delayed action. First, tourism. In 2013 Russians made up 31.6 million tourists visiting Europe. Russia alone represents 6% of all European tourism and Russians tend to spend big, even when they do not have large means, they do have large savings and Russians tend not to count their pence when on vacation. With the Ruble at all time historic lows against the Euro, that tourism will travel else where, either to European nations who have not adopted the Euro or to SE Asia, Russia's new favorite destination.

Worst hit will be Europe's worst Euro economies: Greece, Spain and Italy. In Greece alone, Russians represent 10% of the Greek tourism. If that cuts in half, Greece's fragile, withered economy will suffer much more. Russians spent over $34 billion on tourism last year with 2/3rd going to Europe. Now Europe may get its wish, to be rid of the Russian tourists. Of course that wish will cost Europe dearly, but the snobbish Humanists will not realize their folly until much later. They never do.

Now the other hit, European exports to Russia, will become much more expensive to the average Russian, while Russian exports to Europe will flourish as Russian products, such as food products to Germany, already popular for higher standards than German domestic production and lower prices will become that much lower priced.

German meat exports to Russia had already fallen by 70% in 2013, due to much stricter sanitation standards, which caught most German producers hold their substandard products. A sharp drop in the Ruble, coupled with a fast growing mass swine production industry at home, will mean a very tight and tough market for German pork, as already happened to US chicken. US pork will equally be hit.

German machinery, chemicals and automobiles will equally slump, only accelerating the trend of German companies setting up shop and major production inside of Russia. In turn, this will cost Germany jobs and Germany is now, by plan, the main and only engine of Europe. Except by converting the rest of Europe into impoverished vassal states, in the longer term, where we are now at, the Germans deprived themselves of markets capable of buying their production and with Russian on the decline sharply, the German economy will feel pain and with it the rest of Europe. Smaller European exporters will be hit even faster as they are already living on the margin.

Will this cause a final run on the banks and collapse of the Euro economic folly? Maybe, but which ever the effects, they will be delayed, as that is how economics reacts, in delay. So if it does, it should make for some interesting TV watching in Summer....make sure you get plenty of popcorn.


Anonymous said...

June 2012.

so the bankrupt england resorts to fraud of printing money because it can and it can because the corrupt rating agencies which are anglosaxon controlled still give triple a rating to bankrupt enlgand and IMF and world bank instead of criticising england for fraudulent money printing is encouraging england to print money while at the same time asking European countries to not print money rather tighten the belt.
the Europeans are suffering because they were stupid and fool in not smashing IMf ands world bank and credit agencies which exist only to loot money and wealth from non-anglosaxon coutnries., it is a war by the Anglos on the rest of world.
Uk and the US are lying about the realities and printing money,
so america and uk are openly cheating its debtors nations while for other third world and european countries it insists through IMf to fully pay their debt by selling assets at one percent fire sale.and bankrupt America and britian are proud of their cheating and have temerity to lecture others on financial prudence!

the biggest problem is that the world has been held hostage, blackmailed by a racket called dollar and pound sterling , enforced by the mob known as USA... the "defence" department is not interested in defence or politics, it's there to make sure the dollar and pound sterling remains in charge and anyone trying to avoid it (Iraq, Lybia and now Iran) becomes a candidate for regime change, aka military coup...
$54 trillion of credit in the U.S. financial system based upon trusting a central bank with nothing in the vault to back it up. Amazing!
Needless to say, those with access to leveraged credit and the issuance of fiat money have the power to make claims on resources without actually having produced anything of value or earned tangible forms of wealth.

And given that gold-plated tungsten has turned up all over the world, and that a top German gold expert found fake gold bars imprinted with official U.S. markings, Germans may have lost confidence in the trustworthiness of the Fed
quote” First, for those not familiar with the trillion dollar coin; the idea is that the U.S. Treasury can coin any monetary value they want for whatever purpose they choose.”

, those who borrow in dollars have to repay in dollars and, when the time comes, the international financiers crash the currency exchanges thereby ensuring that the borrowed money becomes un-repayable. The result is that national assets have to be sold at rock-bottom prices to the financiers.

Anonymous said...

IN 2008 Russia and china had the opportunity to destroy IMF and world bank and the american -british system of looting the world ;but foolishly these two countries ,on prompting from parasite england, recommended IMF and world bank to lead new economic system! How stupid of these countries and that is why they never go up in world because of their stupidity.
Why did we think US would leave Afghanistan?? LOL
Much easier to keep an eye on Russia and China from the Eurasian landmass - all the more rapidly they can meddle in other nation's business when the need arises. They can't be guaranteed that a stable Afghan gov't. can be trusted to do its bidding.
Plus what are they gonna do with those hundreds of bases? The airfields? The Afghans have an Air Force now? Shepherds and goat herders would live in those bases I bet, plus they can race their goats on the runway.

Anonymous said...

Russia is a sucker. They believed the US about the reset button. How's the reset Russia? Worth it?
so how long will russia delay the asylum to an hero who exposed russian enemies plots?shame to rus.

Russia HAS NO CREDIBILITY to begin with. Russia and China sold Libya and have NO shame about it. They will do it again if the concession is good enough. Look at Syria. What Russia and
China have done except cheap talk to get better concessions? It was Hizbullah that save Dr. Bashar Asad and his mission to wipe the terrorist off the map who are supported by the zionists and imperialism war criminals. Try to see the facts.


Syria (Iraq, Afghanistan, Egypt, Libya, ...) should be a warning to all countries without nuclear missiles. With them you ensure your sovereignty without them you are a bullies wonderful dream.

US gave 1700+ asylum to Russian dissidents,Russia afraid to help 1 SINGLE hero! what a coward Rus is
what relationship rus expect from mortal enemies england and usa-who plot all the time against Rus?

snowden exposed Russian enemis england and usa-what else could Rus wishfor?why take long2grant asylum

Oh when will the ironies end? Edward Snowden finding asylum in "freedom loving" Russia from the persecution of a snooping, prying Empire. Amerika supplying weapons to Syrian "freedom fighters" with known al-Qaeda ties. NATO parlaying with the Taliban to ensure a graceful exit from the Graveyard of Empires. Washington promoting universal "democracy" and "freedom" in a Middle East where its principal bedrock ally, Saudi Arabia, flogs journalists for blogging about freedom and arrests women for the crime of driving. Perhaps taking the cake, the US wagging its finger at China for espionage! All those kettles calling all those pots sooty messes.

Indeed, "Do as I say, not as I do" should be the national anthem of most anglosaxon countries led by england , who depend on a high-wire act balancing lofty rhetoric with the dirty business of lying, stealing, spying and killing.

A group of terrorists on 9/11 blow a tower block, kill 3000, the U.S goes and kills 2 Million people.

Then they use the same excuse of stopping terrorism and blanket apply it to the Internet. What a perfect excuse to very thinly disguise TOTAL control over everything online

Everybody better be well prepared for a global war of plunder to fix these collapsing economies of the USA, Britain.

The Empire is Britain and it enforces its will through its Death Star, which is its USA colony.

Anonymous said...

I think you are a little disoriented from your nationalist pride at times in your blog. Unfortunately the other comments are too also a bit off the deep end of conspiracy theorist types of labeling. Labeling is a tool used to dehumanize your enemies in war and not a good human process to improve relations. What can one say of a country that has the former secret spy agency head as the president 3 times and prime minister when not he is not the president? He's not going away. Where as in another 2 years and the scourge elected by stupidity twice here in the USA will be gone.