Friday, July 31, 2009

A Fall Pandemic Could Open the Door to World Depression

Whether one subscribes to the theories of starting recovery, or attributes it to statistical skull drudgery and slight of hand, all can agree that the world continues to be in a very precarious position. Whether on its knees or with one leg up and trying to rise, a swift kick to the chest will send the body on its back.

Enter stage right, Nature or as some suspect, Laboratory Creationism: the H1N1 or better named Swine Flu virus. This hybrid virus, so similar in it transmittal patterns to that of the Spanish Flu, may just be the iron clad jack boot that finally collapses the chronic patients lungs and puts an end to the order as it presently stands. What comes next is any body's guess. But I am, dear readers, getting ahead of myself.

Everyone knows, or should know, that early to mid fall is known for two things: economic slow downs and the flu.

Summer vacation times are done. Back to school shopping in the developed world is done. The harvests are done. For many firms, the end of the fiscal calendar is also coming up, a time when accounts are rapped up not opened up. Further, due to the bad weather, the very thing that transmits the flu virus, economic activity also slows. In dear Russia and much of eastern Europe, heavy rains bring things to a grinding halt. This is also true to a smaller degree in western Europe, North America and east Asia.

Any actual or made believe recovery would have to survive this natural down cycle in the early to mid fall, to have a hope of being built upon in the late fall, early winter holiday season.
Unfortunately, other issues are playing against economic growth: illness. This is a season when regular flu cases skyrocket, the damp cold weather and closed crowded office spaces breeding disease. As such, lost productivity and wages abound. Enter Swine Flu.

Swine Flu, even if at only a quarter the strength of the Spanish Flu, will leave .25% of the infected population dead. It seems to spread and infect about the same amount of the population as Spanish Flu did, which also first showed up in spring, went quiet in summer and than roared the roar of death through fall. If a third of Europe's and America's combined 900 million people fall ill with Swine Flu and .25% die, that will leave 2.3 million bodies in a span of 3 months. While this may not seem to be a huge number and it isn't, the cumulative effect of hundreds of millions sick and a population paralyzed in fear of being sick will crush what is left of consumerism and manufacturing.

At the same time, it will place an incredible burden on already bankrupt and over stretched governments and their public services. Where will the money come from, in nations like America, UK or Hungary, to take care of their populations. Government collapse and surely economic collapse would await all of us in this winter of our combined discontent.


Piotr P. said...

Oh, I see you’re an alarmist, on top of everything else. Stas, if you don’t mind, tell us your educational background and occupation, would ya? Clearly, being a former career Army officer, you have no clue about pandemics. As a biology professor, let me tell ya: what you have written here is pure NONSENSE, OK? Crawl back to your bomb shelter and write about what you actually know – how to kill people and not to get killed in return. This blog entrance of yours is the worst yet – totally inaccurate and sensationalistic.

Cobra said...

In California pregnant woman are dying by the swine flu at an alrming rate already.
And the young, wo. antibodies are much more prone to die.
bad, bad flu.
Did you read that some people see evidence that this flu strain was human engineered?
I do not have an opinion, as I am not qualified...

Stanislav said...

Well piotr, instead of being your usual self, a self centered prick, why don't you go and tell us how a pandemic will affect an economy...after all, as a biologist, you should know a lot about that...what me with an economics, engineering and an MBA back ground, can not possibly know anything, you on the other hand are an expert at please go right ahead and tell us the effects of pandemics on struggling economies...oh great and smart one...knowing everything and backing nothing up....we'll wait for you wisdom....

And yes, I do know how to kill and not get killed, quite well and how to lead people to and not get them killed, in the process.

Stanislav said...


Yes, they showed on Russian television that the head of Texas government health ministry said that this was cooked in a lab that it could not have happened on it's own.

Now we will wait for our intellectual master and resident genius, Peter (don't want to insult his hatred for all things Russian by using a Russian name) to tell us how everything is wrong...he is a biologist after all, so economics and such are no problems for him.

subscriptionblocker said...

Stanislav said...

Yes, they showed on Russian television that the head of Texas government health ministry said that this was cooked in a lab that it could not have happened on it's own.


Am a news junkie, but don't ever remember seeing that report here :)

And their website doesn't mention anything about the virus being engineered:

Are you sure this wasn't clipped from one of our more rabid comedians like John Stuart? Sounds like something he might pull off to insult the flat earth people here.

It's considered good sport to find one of these as your victim, then whisper 'conspiracy" in their ear.

We pick on our pompous asses all the time...never suspecting outsiders might listen in on such exchanges. Why do you think such people received such a thrashing last election? While I'd never argue that the public is time, the demagogues are seen "with no clothes."

For reference:

Conspiracy theories involving fluoridation are common, and include claims that fluoridation was motivated by protecting the U.S. atomic bomb program from litigation, that (as famously parodied in the film Dr. Strangelove) it is part of a Communist or New World Order plot to take over the world, that it was pioneered by a German chemical company to make people submissive to those in power, that it is backed by the sugar or aluminum or phosphate industries, or that it is a smokescreen to cover failure to provide dental care to the poor.[20] Specific antifluoridation arguments change to match the spirit of the time.[71]

Do you have such characters in Russia too?

subscriptionblocker said...

Their link system is broken today, but try this:


You're Welcome - Health Care Reform 5:10

That "Healthraiser" image from the main program is classic too.

subscriptionblocker said...

BTW...your bud Perry - the Texas "seccessionist" may soon be out of a job. He's squealing a lot now that he knows his Republican challenger approaches.

Seems the state of Texas will be forced to borrow $2 billion to cover all the unemployments claims after Perry turned down $500 million from our Marxist national government? Payback is scheduled to take 7 years. Ooopps.

He also sold many of our freeways to foreign carpetbaggers. We'll be their serfs for periods exceeding 50 yrs. Oopps again.

Don't know how much influence he had when our major power utilities were deregulated. The new heavily leveraged entities which took their place drove up power rates to almost double the national average. Many stories of little old ladies suffering > 100F days without air conditioning. This is our normal weather, but in France such temperatures killed. Oopps.

Then again, this does sound like some of those stories we heard when the Soviet Union broke up. So perhaps you are correct about our "Marxist gangsters" :)

hamilton x said...

Piotr P,self-hating former Russian and unwelcome pseudo-American you have ONCE AGAIN made a public fool out of yourself.I urge all readers to reference the Washington Post,8/1/09,p.A15 "Complacency Bolsters a Pandemic" written by neurobiologist ,Dr. Mancillas. ONCE AGAIN Mr. Mishin is right and the comical Piotr P. is .....comical.

jerrymp said...

While I have to agree that your language is alarmist, the research I conducted showed me that your facts are correct.

To "piotr" and others, before you post your equally sensationalist rants do some fact checking your selves. I do not /want/ to stick up for Stas and his way of droning on about stuff like how un-godly we are and his fatalistic rhetoric, I must cede to the facts.