Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Ukraine's Future: Many Possibilities

First, dear reader, let us face the reality that Ukraine is a failed nation in all but name. At its very heart, Ukraine is two absolutely opposing sides welded together in an unholy union. The east is of the same basic culture as Russia and a Ukrainian language which is basically Russian, both entities share a united history going back 1,200 years and the same religion, Eastern Orthodoxy, and Patriarch. Both are heavily industrialized with the majority of the people urban dwellers.

This is the exact opposite in western Ukraine, where the culture has been shaped by Poland, Lithuania and Austro-Hungary for 600 of the past 1,200 years. The religion is Roman Catholicism not Eastern Orthodoxy and the Ukrainian is more a dialect of Polish, though do not mention that to a Ukrainian nationalist (who are vastly from the west). Equally the area is little developed, poor in resources and industry and mostly dispersed in rural settings.

So at its very core, the two are absolutely different nations, the East looking towards Moscow and the West towards the Anglo-Marxists.

But a failed state was not always in the cards of Ukraine. Kuchma had managed to hold both sides together and through basic political neutrality between Russia and the Anglo-Marxists and EU and with economic closeness to Russia, bestowed on Ukraine the highest growth rate in all of Europe, at 13% in 2004. Of course that all changed when the Anglo-Marxists were able to put their puppets: Yushenko and Timoshenko on the thrones. The purpose of these appointments was to pull Ukraine from Russia and permanently cripple Russia, not to make Ukrainian life better.

The two Oranges, along with their Uno-Unsa allies, have done everything possible to tear the nation apart. From forcing Ukrainian down everyone's throats, to sucking out resources from the East to feed the West, to destroying a bustling economy with onerous socialist taxes, regulations and market caps. They have even tried to destroy the Orthodox Church by creating a heretical branch directly under Yushenko's control with a "patriarch" recognized by none, whose mission is to forcefully confiscate Church property he has no rights to. Of course, the gas wars on the Anglo-Marxist command and the EU lawsuits that followed, such as the present one, do not help anyone but their masters.

So Ukraine, whose currency is down 80%, who has the highest bond spreads, second only to now defaulted Ecuador, who lost 28.9% of its exports just in Nov 08 and whose economy is set to shrink at least 10% in 2009 is a failed state on many levels. Economy, Ukraine will more than likely default on its debts, even with the $16.5 billion in IMF funding. Socially, it is two absolutely opposite societies that despise each other and politically, it is a bunch of squabbling hens trying to peck each other to death and utilizing the pain of their own people as nothing more but additional propaganda.

So what are the possible outcomes?

1. Ukraine Muddles Through, Anglo-Marxists put in New Puppets.

In this scenario, Ukraine's economy deteriorates but does not collapse completely. The Anglo-Marxists will once again pour in vast sums of money behind one leader or another whom they will make popular, at least for a time. The "old" new regime will be replaced by a "new" new regime and more grandiose promises will be made. The people, desperate for hope, will go along with this and thus things will stay the same. Likelihood: low.

2. Ukraine Muddles Through, Political Quagmire

In this scenario, Ukraine's economy deteriorates but does not collapse completely. The Anglo-Marxist vassals loose most of their power, but no one side holds any kind of monopoly. The economy continues to slide down, political infighting continues and the masses just try to survive. Likelihood: high

3. Ukraine Collapses, Total Failed State

In this scenario, the government defaults completely, remaining investment flees, unemployment skyrockets and a full economic depression sets in. The federal politicians in Kiev are ignored and power devolves to local politicians, strongmen, the mafia and the military. Violence sky rockets and millions of refugees head to Russia and Belarus. More than likely, Russia, Belarus, Romania and Poland would set up zones of control just across the border to protect their own nations. Some level of actual combat will erupt in many different zones as local powers play out power grabs. This could last for years. Likelihood: some what high.

4. Ukraine Splits, Peacefully

In this scenario, the government and economy collapses, but the two distinct halves maintain control of their respective parts. Best of all, they decide to split peacefully. The East will become a satellite of Russia with open borders and trade. The economy will begin to flourish again. Whether it becomes absorbed into Russia or not, will be determined at a much later date but for all effects and purposes, Kieven Rus will be almost fully restored. The West will become a steward of the EU and will probably get absorbed by NATO, though it will bring little to either organization but will pull cash from the cash strapped for decades to come. Likelihood: very high

5. Ukraine Splits, Civil War

In this scenario, the government and economy collapses, but the two distinct halves maintain control of their respective parts. However, there is no peace. Both sides start shooting to get control of Kiev and power. The war will drag out and escalate very quickly up and down the Dnepr region and will more than likely draw in Moldova and Transdniestr. Again, regional neighbors will probably set up zones of control and will support financially and militarily one side or the other. Volunteers will flood in by the tens of thousands. Likelihood: high

Though it is not absolutely clear, at this point, where Ukraine will be, what is clear is who is to blame. It is not the Anglo-Marxist lead banking collapse, that just exasperated the already untenable situation. It is the very staged elections that brought the Anglo-Marxist vassals to power in 2004.

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