Friday, January 22, 2010

Ukrainian Elections

The Polls are in and in the first round, Viktor Yanukovych has won 35.32% of ballots and Yulia Tymoshenko 25.05%, the remaining vote was split Serhiy Tigipko scored 13.06% of votes, Arseniy Yatseniuk 6.96%, Victor Yushchenko 5.45%, Petro Symonenko 3.55%, Volodymyr Lytvyn 2.35%, Oleh Tiahnybok 1.43% and Anatoliy Hrytsenko 1.2%. The other nine candidates each mustered less than 1%.

The key note here: the Western absolute puppet, Yushenko, the policy piece of the IMF got less than 6% of the vote and that is with quite a bit of US/EU publicity and support. I guess the man who made tens of millions off of his own Orange Revolution through owning its trade marks, will now get to leave quietly and spend his fortunes.

My prediction on the second round will be: Yanukovich will win with 47.5% of the vote and Timoshenko will lose with 41%, setting Ukraine up for a massive power struggle, and shortly afterward dissolving of the union between West Bank and East Bank Ukraine.


Anonymous said...

Here's one for you, sir:

jack said...

If you want to know how they will probably try to disrupt the presidency of Yanukovych look at what they have been during in neighbouring Belarus and how they have been trying to unseat Lukashenko.

JAwuku said...

Hello Mr. Mishin,

I think that the predictions of Ukraine's split are very premature.

First of all, the divisive Orange Revolution has died. Yushchenko only got 6% of the vote. His supporters are mainly in the westernmost oblasts such as Lviv.

The two most likely contenders, Yanukovych and Tymoshenko, both desire a strong, independent, united Ukraine, but with warm relations with Moscow.

These factors, in my opinion, should help to stabilize Ukraine.

While Ukrainian remains the official language, it would be good for Russian, at least in the Russian-speaking oblasts, e.g. Crimea, to gain some official recognition. The ethnic Russians would feel more represented, and hopefully, any sentiments for secession would abate.

And if Tymoshenko does not secure the presidency, she is likely to land an important government role - a telegenic Foreign Minister perhaps?

This is not to say that Ukraine still faces significant problems. One of these, being the large debt that Yushchenko has brought Ukraine into, with the IMF loans.

Also, Yushchenko has failed to address the concerns of corruption in his country. Too much of the economy is tied up by oligarchs such as Akhmetov and Deripaska.

And the health care crisis also - many deaths due to the flu, and unpreparedness of the authorities regarding supplies. Chronic underfunding has resulted in incidents such as the tragedy in the city Lugansk, in the far-east of Ukraine, 1 week ago, when neglected oxygen cylinders exploded in an intensive care unit.

But there is cause for optimism in this election.