The Situation
The US has three allies in the Caucasus: Turkey an Islamizing regional powerhouse; the Islamic pseudo monarchy/dictatorship of Azerbaijan where opposition leaders tend to die young; and Orthodox Georgia, where a US/EU backed tinpot dictator rules with an iron fist.
Opposing this are Russia and its full time ally Armenia, both Orthodox countries and the king of the Shiite Islamics, Iran, a some time partner of Russia. There are also two break away zones of Georgia, both desiring union with Russia.
At stake are a half dozen oil and gas pipelines and the Azerbaijan's oil/gas fields as well as northern Iranian fields.
As everyone who is familiar with the area, the Armenians and Azerbaijanies fought a bloody war over a large chunk of land known as Nagroni Koraban. This area, owned by Azerbaijan but populated by Armenians has been an unfinished conflict for the better part of the past 14 years, with shelling and sniper fire a weekly event. Clashes between armed forces, company or smaller in scale, are also rather common.
Armenia has rebuilt its economy, though it is still primarily an agrarian nation and one surrounded by enemies, both Islamic and fellow Orthodox. It has no land connection to its closest ally Russia and thus has become very militarized.
Opposing Armenia, Azerbaijan is a none sponsor of terrorists, both against Orthodox Armenians and Orthodox Russians. It is also an "elected" monarchy where the son of the president for life was elected in the loosest terms by one of the most blatantly rigged elections in human history. Dick Cheney, hypocritically, was quick to praise them. Azerbaijan is the poorest of the the former soviet republics, regardless of its oil/gas wealth. The money is either stolen, spent on the military or funneled to Islamic Jihadists.
Than there is the Republic of Georgia, a nation hobbled together from several former semi independent Georgian kingdoms, all of which have been dominated by either the Persians, Turks or the Russians for the past seven hundred years. Added onto this conglomeration, by Stalin, were the Ossessians, Abkhaz, Armenians, Chechens and Ajarians, totally separate ethnic groups. When, in post Soviet 1992 Georgia, these areas asked for autonomy, Georgia responded with a full fledged set of wars, even as it was fighting its own civil war, to exterminate these minorities. The Georgians, not having been good soldiers for some one thousand years, dully lost these wars.
Add to this the three main regional powers: Russia with an islamic jihad in Chechnya; Persia with Kurdish and Azari uprisings and terror; Turkey with Kurdish insurgents and you get an area with an extremely volitile mix of religions, ethnicities and alliances and national goals.
Enter Saakashvillie the Mad
It all started with the Rose Revolution and never mind how a half million roses "spontaneously" sprouted in Georgia, particularly around it's capital Tbilisi, in the midst of winter...Washington and the American taxpaying suckers er citizens have a way of making these things happen.
A Georgian US (NYC) trained lawyer (at this point most sensible people would be either running or grabbing rope and pitchforks) through massive US/EU funding and corruption was able to remove the former US/EU favorite Shevardnadze (who had become to close to Russia-the US/EU center of all evil and badness and scary people) and take supreme "democratic" power.
Murdering his own party members, like his prime minister Zurab Zhvania and arresting opposition party heads while sending hundreds of their followers to the hospital, simply isn't enough. No our would be Napoleon, king of a mouse, has nothing short on his mind then the reconquest of Abkhazia and S.Ossessia and the Final Solution to their people. With the backing of Bush the Bubbling and Cheney the Bloodthirsty and the various hordes of cannibalistic Neocons and their Marxist ideology, Saakashvillie feels he can take on those areas and even stave off the Red Army.
Problem here is, does he 1. believe that Russia will not protect its citizens (95% of the people living in those two areas, to include the Georgians, are Russian citizens) 2. believe that Russia, if it were to move in to protect its people would be countered by the US both diplomatically and militarily or 3. that the great Georgian army of 37,000 (only about 5,000 are fully battle trained, most of the rest barely know what end the bullets come out) can not only stop the Red Army but reconquer Sochi, too.
More than likely, he believes number 3. Megalomaniacs tend to be like that. Already, Georgian troops are massing in Kodorski Ushel (valley) after having destroyed an opposition Georgian politician there and his followers-- Kvistiani. I knew him personally and he made a toast to my new, young bride, shortly after our wedding, at a big diplomatic dinner I had arranged. While Kvistiani was accused of being Moscow's man, he was anything but and worst, he was not Washington's man and that, folks, simply can not be tolerated.
But I digress. Kodorski Ushel is strategically placed to allow the Georgians to by pass the best protected routes and defenses of the Abkhaz. Never mind the Red Army has a division in the area and another, armored division on short deploy notice not far inside of Russia.
Furthermore, S.Ossessia is in the middle of a sniper siege and women and children are being evacuated into Russia's N.Ossessia province to it's capital Vladikovkaz (home of the Beslan massacre). So where is Washington and Brussels when their puppet orders his men to gun down through sniper fire, women and children? Oh, that's right, it's only terror if a Serb is accused of doing this, not a puppet of the West. As this is happening, N.Ossessian militia, Russian Federal Special Forces and Russian Cossacks are streaming in to the area to once again defend it.
All this is of course making for a fun late summer/early fall. A tinder box full of dynamite and everyone is throwing lit matches.
Washington has once more stuck its nose in and glued it to something out its control.
As the War Starts
Sooner or later and I'm betting on sooner, the war between Georgia and Russia will fully explode, the Georgian dictator and murderer counting on Americans in country (some 1,500 US service men) and those out of country to come to his side and die for his genocidal ideals. Many more than likely will. Georgia's ally, Azerbajan will more than likely enter, drawing in Armenia on the opposing side. The Armenians living in southern Georgia (a people who have been abused non-stop by the Georgians for the past 15 years) will more than likely blow the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline, cutting off 1 million barrels per day off the world market.
The conflict will quickly spread, with Chechens and other Islamics streaming into Russia and possibly attacking the Dryzina pipeline, threatening another 1-2 million barrels. Russia will be forced to further invade Azerbaijan and more than likely Iran will strike north into it also. DC or Israel might take this opportunity to attack Iran, which will cascade into a whole other conflict and cut off another 25% of world oil.
Even if the US has a sudden and rare attack of common sense and does not move into the conflict, Turkey will more than likely also get sucked into the fight. This will of course draw northern Iraq in. A Turkey busy fighting Russia will be much easier to deal with by the Kurds and by the Greek Cypriots out to get the invaded half of their island back.
At this point, the question becomes: does Greece and Bulgaria and possibly other Balkan countries sit this out or do they take the opportunity to revenge upon Turkey again and this time free Constantinople.
In gist, this is the most under reported but yet volatile situation to affect the oil world. At a minimal 1 million barrels will be brought off of the market. The volume could easily go up to 5 million.
How will the blind world react to that?
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