Monday, March 9, 2015

Getting Russia Wrong All The Way To War

American politicians in particular and European politicians in general are some of the most ignorant fools when the issue comes to anything outside their own borders. When it comes to Russia, it is an engima wrapped in a mystery...but only because, dear readers, no one has every bothered to try to understand Russians and the Russian world view.

One important historical fact about Russia is that Russia is a unique civilizational empire built upon defense not offense. What this means is that historically, Russia does not start the wars, or series of wars (though it may strike first in a confrontation that is punctuated by a series of wars). In Russian history, Russian leaders, since Russia's baptism to Orthodoxy, have tried hard to avoid war with our neighbors, though just about every time this has failed. In parallel, as much as we do not like war, and in Orthodoxy killing in combat is still a sin as we do not have the heresy of Just War, we are very very good at killing and destroying. A paradox, but it is the reality. 

This was so profound that in the summer of 1914, the Tsar Nicholas II, when war was eminent, even haulted mobilization to try and defuse the situation one more time and talk the Austrians and Germans out of what would become the great tragedy of early 20th century. 

The problems with modern, and in truth historical, Western politicos is that these guys are absolute fools with no understanding of the Russian psyche and are sure to be the cause of WW3, be it intentional or accidental. They are projecting their psyche onto Russians. 

What this means is that they are projecting a typical negative reinforcement mentality. Europe and the US are societies built on constant aggression towards neighbors. Aggression like that is staved by building up a credible large counter force of allies and blocks, which causes fear of defeat and deescalation...your typical European balance of forces approach.

Russia is a defensive empire, that is, most wars or series of wars were not started by Russians but by enemies attacking or massing on Russia's borders. After 800 years of almost non-stop aggression by Europeans, Russia does not tolerate any enemy massing on her borders in what appears as a preparation for invasion or the creation of large scales basing areas as would be a US neo-con dominated Ukraine.This is also coupled with the Russian approach of not abandoning Russians (ethnic or cultural) and allies, as opposed to Anglo society where back stabbing allies when the opportunity to earn exists, is a prized skill.

As such, this is a spiral approach. Any escalation by the foreigners will lead to a direct escalation by Russia and not deescalation. Balance of power does not work when Russia feels her survival threatened. Enough of an enemy escalation in the hope of forcing Russia to back off will generate an exact opposite effect in generating a first strike and total war, as Russia feels her life and existence is threatened by the enemy.

Nothing like putting Russian society in a threatened siege mentality to force the individual chaotic Russian nature to crystallize into one direction: total destruction of the threat and the states that generate it.

Russia's army may be only 1 million but the ready reserve is over 20 million with a follow capability of total mobilization of over 40 more million, and maybe more if one starts counting female combatants and one should. 

Last time the factories were run by children, old people and women. Now with massive automation, even more of society is freed up to fight. Since Russian civilization is not just land but a cultural idea/philosophy it generates an absolute fanatical loyalty. This is a loyalty to a culture that allows the temporary surrender of land for time in the understanding that this will then be used, combined with non-stop partisan warfare, to grind down the invader and  decimate him deep in the Russian interior, before marching on his cities and burning them to the ground in revenge.

Europe needs to find some German or Romanian veterans and ask them how much fun they had. Mamal Kurgan, the highest hill in Volgorad (Stalingrad) a 1,5 km sq area had 35.000 identifiable bodies on it, half of them German, after 4 months of fighting. That is more than both sides lost on the beaches of Normandy. In WW2 the Germans were on average having 1 soldier killed every 30 seconds. Figure 3-4 times as many wounded.

The present serving armies of NATO would be used up in 3-4 months. That would amount to almost a million and a half dead and wounded.

NATO would collapse. Greeks would refuse to fight. Serbs would be a war in the middle of all this. Cypriots would refuse to fight. Turkey would likely also refuse to die in a war they could only loose from. Bulgaria would probably have a revolution. Romania and Italy and Spain and Portugal would not long suffer heavy casualties before their unpopular governments were overthrown. France more than likely also. US couldn't fully concentrate their army as they would have to release their grip on all other sectors which in turn would be blowing up.

As for a second front, that is, if America was to invade the Russian far east, well, outside of grabbing Sakhalin and Vladivastok and Khabarovsk, all of which will cost hundreds of thousands of corpses, a US invasion force would be faced with a march of 3000km, or about 1,800 miles to the nearest major oil fields and forced to cover a land area larger then the continental United States, in wilderness terrain, with Russian partisans and the very cold Siberian winter (8 months long) filling the corpse lists on a daily basis. In other words, outside of a temporary land grab, nothing to fear.

Also if things got bad China would step in knowing they are next on the hit list, and thus Siberia would be fairly safe from US forces.

The reality, Americans, Germans, and foolish Poles, is, Russians will fight and 152 million people will fight to the end, not because Putin sits in power, or because we fear the enemy, but because love of Russia, the very idea of Russia, will drive fanatical, well trained and armed with advanced weaponry resistance. Russians will fight regardless of who sits the throne, because we are not fighting for the leader but for Christ and for Russia, the land He gave us as the Third Rome. What exactly will you be fighting for?


Jake said...

I need to have you talk to my wife - I want to accelerate emigrating from the USA, or rather FSA (Fascist States of America).
People here are mostly zombies, partly from the non-stop propaganda, but also from the fluoride in the water (I got off it, and have recovered from a 20-year long bout of chronic depression - seriously!), terrible food, and terrible public education.
You have no idea how stupid Americans are, except a minority who homeschool or send their children to private Christian schools (our option). It is unbelievable.
My own brother frothed at the mouth when I doubted that Russia shot down MH17 last summer.

Anyway, thanks for this powerful statement.
I know this is a long short and a weird request, but if I can arrange it, would you have a frank online discussion with my wife about why we need to emigrate and get ourselves, and especially our only child, citizenship in another, non-NATO country?

Stanislav said...

Sure. By the way, homeschooling is legal in Russia. Also all schools have an optional religion class (in most cases its Orthodox Christianity, since that's 69% of the population's religion of choice). Religious schools are also available....private schools are actually dumbed down...they are for the rich guys to buy stupid kids a diploma...the government schools, especially the gymnasiums are extremely tough compared to modern US/UK educations.

But keep this in mind, if you leave the US and keep US citizenship, you will pay double taxes on your pension fund and income. Friend of mine is constantly bitching about this but will not give up his citizenship.

By the way, Malaysia's official papers are pinning the blame of the shot down on Ukraine.

Anonymous said...

BTW Jake, we are thinking the same thing -not just for ourselves but for our 3 children and 13 grandchildren who are home schooled. Truly the values of Russia line up with our own and we like the idea of our g-children becoming Russian.
Much planning ahead for us, but staying here is a 'dead-end' for us all.

Anonymous said...

Dunno Stanislav,

Your cretins look like everyone else's cretins. There is nothing but tragedy here. And it seems no one has any interest in stopping it.

Remember all those times Russia *rightfully* demanded UN involvement to help settle conflicts? Are those days gone? Or is it still possible for both sides to take a deep breath and back away from the cliff?

I mean right now a disinterested alien would be looking at this mess pondering: "They bordered the largest world market, were rapidly growing trade, shrinking military leakages, and were gaining influence because they were often right. But they threw it all away because their cousin moved into a neighbor's house?"

Admit I can't fathom the "hurt inventory" between Russia and Ukraine nor the motivations for the froth I read in your newspapers. Obvious *something* was there for a long time.

*If* ethnic Russians were facing abuse at the hands of Ukrainians...that's certainly something which had to be dealt with. But putting Russian military in there was probably the worst path. Because a fact is a fact Stanislav. Are Ukrainians in Russia?

Here's a "what if". What if much of what you think you know about Ukraine wasn't true? Is that possible? Oopps.

Not now, but almost certainly your grandchildren will regret this diversion. The missed opportunity. Countries around you are mounting broomhandles to armored vehicles forchristsake :) Probably something your grandparents would have dearly treasured. Had *they* been able to live in such a world.

But instead? Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory....You'll just hafta live this mistake down.

Fay said...

Of course the Greeks would refuse to fight for NATO.There is a bitter resentment for both the EU and NATO in the majority of the Greek people and whoever thinks this is not true,is just blind.

Jake said...

I see a public-school educated Americant who wanted to remain anonymous attempted to think and write at the same time, but failed miserably.

Anonymous said...

Will never be fully settled, but the Dutch are trying...

Was it intentional? No. Of course not. Do the dead smell any different vs intended victims? No.

Wars never go by plan. A good reason to avoid them.

Don't know if Putin is "afraid", but he's almost certainly dismayed. And he's not as stupid as dumbo Bush. So probably even doubts himself.

There are sincere people in Russia. I hope they are fighting as hard to stop these journalist assassinations as many of us are fighting neocons.

A good start for Russians? Bend your damn laws so that "targets" can be armed. Most of them probably won't arm themselves, and arming certainly won't stop a motivated and competent attacker. But one never knows just having the chance for "reversals" deters.

The best outcome of course is having Russian citizens armed to counter thuggery. The world would become a safer place.

Anonymous said...

I don't get it. What possible motivation could Russia have for stirring these people up? Recognize much of this is just politicians hyperventilating...but why is Russia doing this.

Almost like a cruel child poking caged monkeys with a stick?

Anonymous said...

Standing armies & entrenched military industrial complexes are a threat to everyone. The US public has been trying to seize their country back since WWII - without much success.

So what will happen when *new* parasites get entrenched within Europe?

Think Europe or Russia will do any better?

Russia might long for the "good old days" when the only pushback came from people who didn't really wish to be there?

Europe and Russia successfully "forgot" their past for the last 20 years. Things were getting steadily better. That's now at risk unless both camps work to defuse Ukraine. The longer this thing festers - the less trust will be available to draw upon.

Make no mistake...this whole episode truly is snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. It unites Europe - but in a bad way. Wasn't necessary. Ultimately counterproductive. Will be regretted....

It's time to step back from the brink. There won't be any "winners" here.

Anonymous said...

Stan, you say “In Orthodoxy killing in combat is still a sin as we do not have the heresy of Just War”. Question: In Orthodoxy is it a sin to take the life of an aggressor enemy in defense of your family, your home and/or your homeland ?

Stanislav said...

Any killing is a sin. It is done to prevent a greater evil but it is still a sin and he who spills blood must fast and pray to cleanse his soul of the sin of killing. That is Orthodoxy. No different then the ancient israelites, who could not give sacrifice until they fasted and cleansed, even when sent to war by God's word.

Robert Harneis said...

« This was so profound that in the summer of 1914, the Tsar Nicholas II, when war was eminent, even halted mobilization to try and defuse the situation one more time and talk the Austrians and Germans out of what would become the great tragedy of early 20th century. »

I agree with most of this article but I am not sure that this bit is entirely true. The Tsar may have halted mobilisation for a day or two but I fear he and his close supporters hoped to bolster his regime by a victory - just like the other participants. Fatally in 1914 the Russian government agreed with the French to launch an attack on Germany whereas the situation on the ground indicated defensive tactics against Germany - not Austria or Turkey. It is true that there were members of the Russian government who wanted to avoid war at all costs but they were overridden. In any event Putin seems to understand this and is playing his cards pretty well. I fear the only thing that will stop the West in its blundering is a financial collapse, which will come. But when ? It is of course precisely this realisation that explains why the US and the Western powers were afraid to wait 15 months for an election in Ukrane. Another reason was that they feared that common sense would prevail and Yanukovitch would have won. I recommend Professor Christopher Clark's wonderful diplomatic history of 1914 The Sleepwalkers. I get the impression that Putin and Lavrov have read it but the NATOists have not. One thing is sure, there were just as many brilliant idiots around then as now.

Anonymous said...

Stanislav, will you please provide an example to support your claim that " the ancient israelites, who could not give sacrifice until they fasted and cleansed, even when sent to war by God's word.".

Stanislav said...


The reason that Russia agreed to the offensive is that Paris was about to fall and the French were screaming like crazy. The Russian offensive was not well prepared, lacking in supplies. It was launched a month earlier than planned and was a disaster, with the destruction of Samsonov's 2nd Army. However, it did save Paris as the Germans moved 2 elite corps to the east and thus were unable to reach Paris. Leave it to the French to muck things up.

Stanislav said...

Numbers 31:19
Encamp outside the camp seven days. Whoever of you has killed any person and whoever has touched any slain, purify yourselves and your captives on the third day and on the seventh day.

Anonymous said...

I am reading Geoffrey Hosking, Russia and the Russians a history. From Kievan Rus onward.
I protested the Amerikan aggression against Vietnam at that time. Watched made for Russian television series, the War in the East: The Great Patriotic War.
But for which Hitler would have pushed the D-Day invasion back into the sea. The average American is ignorant of his own history let alone Russia's. The wealthiest 1% of our population own our government and profit from endless war. I"ve come to see Russians as spiritual and accomplished. Too many Americans believe our militarist propaganda. Summarized: mess with the Bear, get the claws.
an Amerikan radical

Anonymous said...

Your Russian people are just as dumbed down as Americans or Europeans. All of our governments have agendas. Stop the hate. White gentile Russians are our brothers. No more brother wars.

It's the Jews.

Φωτοβολος Τοξοτης said...

Ellas must and will remain out of the major USA/NATO/Russia WWIII conflict. Thyere is much higher purpose reserved for Ellines. However, Ellas will have to fight a war with Turkey soon enough.

Φωτοβολος Τοξοτης said...

There is a miscalculation in the hypothesis, namely that the Chinese will remain in the Russian alliance. However, as it stands treaties have been broken before and will be broken in the future. In fact China will wish to have the West and Russia destroy each other (and the white population ) so that they shall stand as the only remaining superpower. Thus an attack could come not only at the Sakhalin Islands but from at least two major thrusts from mainland China.

Raw manpower has been presented as an argument for wining a long term war but if that is the case China has the manpower and can afford to send a few millions to war. What Russia should be concentrating hard (as it seems to be doing) is to sharpen the claws and teeth of the Russian bear with advanced technologies for it troops, and at the same time to become self sufficient in at least the basic raw materials and food supply. Comparison of prior wars serve as a good starting point but one cannot and should not discount technology which changes strategies and war plans on the spot. Protracted wars need a source of materials, goods and services to be maintained for society to function at a certain level, and adequate food supply. It is a reminder that Russia did receive help from the USA across the Bering Sea in WWII but that will not be the case this time. Time will tell us soon enough. But we should remember that God through Jesus will 'shorten those days'...with a massive CME from the Sun, .so that Humanity will survive...only to face the opening of the gates and the Nefelim races coming out from the gates...God Bless and Protect us ALL His People Yes Amen. .

Anonymous said...

Hi Vladimir

I would like to translate in french and post your article on my orthodox blog called Eschaton.

I will indicate credits and link to the source.

Is it ok for you?

God bless you and the third Rome. May He gave us patience and courage.

Anonymous said...

Bravooo - mnogo dobar tekst!!! Pozdrav i puno PODRSKA od Makedoniju! :) Bravooo -Excellent text !!! Salute and big SUPPORT from Macedonia!!!